Russian stocks can drop on bad virus news, OPEC+ pressure

MOSCOW, Apr 8 (PRIME) -- The Russian stock market will likely open lower on Wednesday because no positive trend in the coronavirus pandemic emerged on Tuesday, and the OPEC plus deal is in danger due to disagreements between Russia and Saudi Arabia, analysts said.

"The U.S. futures add more than 0.5% today in the morning but they are still below Russian market’s closure yesterday. That’s why we expect opening of trade with small downward gaps and after that, the trend will be defined by the external background. But it is just scary to buy anything except gold producers: no sector of the economy has growth drivers," Alor Broker analyst Alexei Antonov said.

He said that the Western markets are unlikely to rise because an emerging decrease of the coronavirus contagion rate has not been confirmed and the death toll in the U.S. reached a record on Tuesday.

Sergei Drozdov, analyst at investment company Finam, said that Brent fell by 1.97% to U.S. $32.4. "The market reacted negatively to a forecast of the U.S. Energy Department, according to which the authority does not expect the OPEC plus agreement to resume and that Saudi Arabia will reach full capacity in the second quarter of 2020," he said.

Nevertheless, the forecast does not reflect the general market mood, as investors hope for the oil output reduction deal to work out, he said.

Antonov said that Saudi Arabia is pressing Russia, asking to set today's production level as the base for the output cut calculation, while Russia that did not raise the output fast after the OPEC plus deal was cancelled and wants the OPEC plus level as the base.

An extraordinary video conference of OPEC plus deal members is scheduled for Thursday, and the energy ministers of G20 are to hold negotiations on Friday, the final decision of OPEC plus will depend on their results, Drozdov said.

Drozdov set the local support level of the MOEX Russia Index at 2,590 and 2,550 and resistance at 2,690 and 2,730. The RTS local support levels are 1,055 and 1,030 and resistance 1,133 and 1,162. 

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